Military action against Iran seemed very likely, especially if the democrats were gaining ground in the current presidential election. Republican war hawks believe that Barack Obama would not be tough enough to deal effectively with Iran. However, recently these sentiments have changed and an attack in the near future seems less and less likely as the presidential race continues.
No one knows close Iran is to being able to manufacture nuclear weapons, but Mohammed El-Baradei has concluded that the country is still quite far away from having the necessary capabilities for a weapons program. The general consensus is that there is still an opportunity for diplomacy but the next president must take action. The author of the article speculates that perhaps the stalemate in Washington has to do with president Bush’s past actions in the middle east and his desire to hold off on leaving the region in greater turmoil. The administration has also made it very clear that they oppose an Israeli attack as well. With the Israeli elections taking place, the new prime minister will most likely shy away from military against Iran.
The global financial crisis also puts some pressure on the Iranians and leaves some room for international economic action against Iran in order to get some diplomatic leverage.
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